Bulls Drive the Most-Traded BC Copper Contract to Four Consecutive Gains [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

      Today, the International Copper 2505 contract opened at 71,750 yuan/mt, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains, primarily driven by increased long positions. Overnight, the most-traded BC copper 2505 contract opened higher with a gap, followed by continuous short position increases, pushing the futures market downward to a low of 71,510 yuan/mt. During the daytime session, the futures market fluctuated upward above the daily average line. In the afternoon, bulls regained momentum, driving prices higher to a peak of 72,300 yuan/mt, significantly above the daily average line. The contract eventually closed at 72,110 yuan/mt, up 0.71%, with a trading volume of 5,940 lots and an open interest of 10,287 lots, an increase of 813 lots compared to the previous trading day.

      Macro side, the US Treasury Secretary stated that reciprocal tariff rates on April 2 would vary by country, with some countries potentially facing lower rates. The US dollar index fluctuated at low levels. Geopolitically, tensions in the Middle East escalated as Israeli forces launched another large-scale airstrike on the Gaza Strip. Fundamentals side, supply side, the Panamanian president approved the export of 120,000 mt of Cobre Panama copper concentrates, but these have not entered the Chinese market. Meanwhile, Freeport Indonesia announced it had obtained an export permit for 1.27 million mt of copper concentrates from the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, allowing shipments from Freeport's copper concentrate loading ports to commence. Additionally, according to SMM, a significant number of long-term contract imports of copper cathode to China in April have been delayed or canceled, which may lead to a continued decline in net imports of copper cathode in the future. Overall, with the US dollar index remaining low, copper prices are expected to remain resilient and supported.

      The SHFE copper 2505 contract closed at 80,890 yuan/mt. Based on the International Copper 2505 contract price of 72,110 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is approximately 81,484 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2505 contract and the International Copper 2505 contract stood at -594 yuan/mt, with the inverted price spread slightly widening compared to the previous trading day.